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Economic indicators: yield spreads, breakeven inflation and CPI inflation from the published figures of 12 November 2026

ToolEconomic Indicators
SourceU.S. Department of the Treasury (2026). Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates and Daily Treasury Par Real Yield Curve Rates, 12 November 2026; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (2026). Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, all items, September 2025 and September 2026.
LevelUndergraduate

Problem

On 12 November 2026 the Treasury par yields were 5.10 % at 10 years, 4.86 % at 2 years and 4.32 % at 3 months, and the 10-year par real yield (TIPS) was 2.86 %. The CPI-U all-items index, not seasonally adjusted, was 336.940 in September 2026 and 324.800 in September 2025. Find the two yield spreads, the 10-year breakeven inflation rate and the change in consumer prices over the year.

Inputs to Enter

  • Group Overview, period last 10 years (the default view; the figures are those stored on 13 November 2026 and change when the data are refreshed)
  • 10-year yield 5.10 %, 2-year 4.86 %, 3-month 4.32 %, 10-year real yield 2.86 % (12 November 2026)
  • CPI-U 336.940 (September 2026) and 324.800 (September 2025)
Open the Economic Indicators tool (loaded with this example)

Answers

  • 10-year less 2-year: 5.10 − 4.86 = 0.24 point; 10-year less 3-month: 5.10 − 4.32 = 0.78 point; both positive, so the curve was not inverted between those maturities
  • Breakeven inflation: 5.10 − 2.86 = 2.24 % a year; read the other way, real yield = 5.10 − 2.24 = 2.86 %
  • CPI inflation over the year: (336.940 / 324.800 − 1) · 100 = 3.738, about 3.7 %
  • A year earlier (12 November 2025) the 10-year yield was 4.08 % and the 2-year 3.56 %: spread 0.52 point
  • Payroll employment 159,293 thousand in October 2026 against 159,128 thousand in September: +165 thousand

Notes

The tool shows this case on arrival (the Overview). October 2026 CPI (337.511) has no year-over-year figure because the October 2025 index was not published, so the page uses September. The figures are U.S. government statistics stored on the site and refreshed on a schedule; the page reports them and their differences and makes no forecast. Every figure is checked against the stored observations and an independent numpy calculation (test_macro_dashboard.php), and the stored observations against the agencies' own files (test_macro_data.php).